Only veteran bettors know what type of beast betting the MLB can be. The season is long, there are many games each day, and there is no time to regroup from a winning or losing day before having to breakdown the next days action. However, these same veteran bettors can provide plenty of valuable insight into why betting Baseball is different from betting any other sport.
With a 162 game season, there is a lot to account for. Long road trips out West/East, home stands, injuries, hot and cold streaks, etc.
The most glaring advantage for bettors that comes from this extremely long season is how often even the best teams in the league loses. For example, the best record in 2010 belonged to the Philadelphia Phillies. Their overall record was 97-65. The BEST team in all of babseball lost 65 times! This provides a distinct advantage for bettors that can identify the dogs to take on a given day, and bet it at a good number. Historically in a 3 game series, the best team beats the worst team 2 times out of 3. That means the worse team has about a 30% chance to beat the better team straight up. Considering the volume of games being played and how often the worse team will beat the better team, bettors will only need to hit about 45% of their picks at +120 to break even.
This trend is only for bettors who will be following the action each day in order to keep track of W/L’s and everything else in between. Betting Friday-Sunday on MLB will not allow you to track this trend properly. I picked up on this philosophy a few years ago, and I stayed true the last 2 years I tracked it.
The trend is simple – Each MLB team will have AT MINIMUM one 4 game winning streak, and one 4 game losing streak. Obviously, it is important to track each teams progress through the season in order to find the angle when it is there. One important aspect of this trend to remember is that, when a team – let’s say the Marlins – hit their 4 game winning streak, we mark them off the ‘Winning Streak’ list. There will be cases where teams get 2-3 4 game winning streaks. For this betting trend, we will only be playing the first of these situations.
Tips: Make a spreadsheet with each team listed under the ‘4 game winning streak’ column, and another column listed as ‘4 game losing streak’. When a team is on a 3 game W streak, bet the next game. If it hits, remove them from the winning streak column and press on. If it loses, do not remove them as they have not yet met the criteria.
This is no secret in the world of baseball betting. Which is why I should begin by saying, Vegas is clearly aware of this as much as we are. For this betting angle, we are track games in which BOTH teams are preparing to leave the city they are playing the game in. When these games are found, play the under. Obviously, you want to keep an eye on SP’s and other factors, but the general rule is the under is a strong play here. Managers resting key players (Chipper) and other variables.
It is a simple thing to overlook, but it’s important to track who the homeplate umpire is. This information can be found just about anywhere if you look in the right place. For this angle, you will need to track an umpires tenancies over his career, but especially for the current season. There are Under Umps, Over Umps, Homer (Home team) Umps, etc.
It can be profitable to make a bet based solely on the umpire. However, another good way to spin this as a greater advantage is to compare your bets you are about to lock against the homeplace ump to see if your pick is either supported or refuted. I should point out that if you still like your original wager, go for it.
We hope these trends, angles, and information can help you reach your betting goals this summer and allow you to BEAT THE BOOKS.