College and Pro Locks for 9/27 – 10/1

BITS had another strong week, going 5-2 on the weekend for +10.3 Units for its 3rd winning week in the first 4. We are now up 15.2 Units on the season, and are hitting at 67% on its 4 and 5 star locks. Here are the locks for this coming week.

5 Star Lock

Cowboys -3 vs. Bears : This spread currently sits at -3.5 after opening at -4. Good chance it goes to -3 by kickoff, but to be on safe side, spend the -120 or -130 required to buy it down to -3. Cowboys struggled vs. Tampa this past weekend, but still escaped with a win. And that is what good teams do…they find a way to win. The Cowboys were impressive in Week 1 vs. the Giants, and while they struggled vs. the Seahawks, it appears Seattle is a better team than previously believed. The Bears are 2-1 as well, but struggled in their one evening game already, and Cutler has struggled in big Primetime games in the past. The Cowboys appear to be ready to get all the pieces together for a game, and I look for that game to be Monday night. Cowboys take this one 27-17, but as mentioned, to be safe buy line to -3.

4 Star Locks

Arizona Wildcats -2.5 vs. Oregon State : At first glance it’s easy to see that Arizona got pummeled 49-0 @ Oregon, and Oregon State is undefeated and ranked #18 after starting off with wins against Wisconsin and UCLA. But win you look deeper into the stats, you will see that Arizona actually moved the ball vs. the Ducks, but were bitten by 4 Turnovers in the Red Zone. Oregon State is a good ball club, but Arizona will not put up another goose egg like they did this past weekend. Look for the Arizona offense to get back on track this weekend, and win this one 37-24.

Bucaneers -3 vs. Redskins : This is a matchup of 2 teams that are 1-2 and coming off back to back losses. The Redskins bandwagon grew after Week 1 when RG3 exploded on the scene with a win at New Orleans. But now with the Saints at 0-3, that win is not looking as impressive. And they lost the past 2 weeks to the Rams and Bengals, showing a lack of discipline in both games. Tampa Bay on the other hand started the season with a nice win vs. Carolina, and lost two tight games on the road to the Giants and Cowboys. They easily could have won both games and be sitting at 3-0. Fact is, we think Tampa is a much better team than Washington, and that will show this weekend. Tampa wins this won wire to wire 31-13.

3 Star Locks

Clemson -9.5 @ Boston College : While Clemson lost this weekend, they did put up an impressive 37 points with a top ranked Florida State Defense. And other than a win vs. Maine, Boston College has not had much else to talk about in losses to Miami and Northwestern. The Clemson offense is simply too high powered here. The Eagles may keep it close for a half, but Clemson will pull away in this one, 41-21.

Jaguars +3 vs. Bengals : This spread currently has moved from +1 to +2.5, and as we usually recommend with spreads at this amount, spend the extra 10-20% to buy the line to +3. The key in this matchup will be the home field edge and the dominating running of MJD. Jacksonville lost a tough one to the Vikings to start the year, then lost to Houston, one of the top teams in the league. But they had a nice comeback victory vs. the Colts this past weekend, and look for them to get their first home win this weekend. The Bengals were manhandled by the Ravens to open the year, and have been unimpressive in 2 wins vs. the Browns and Redskins. What I take from their 2 wins is that the defense gave up way too many points. Jacksonville will put up over 30, and the Bengals will not score on the Jaguars defense as easily as they did vs. the Browns and Redskins. This is our game we label as this week’s ‘Wrong Team Favored’. Final score will be Jaguars 34 Bengals 17. But go ahead and buy spread to +3. When you win, who cares about the extra juice to get the spread you want.

Broncos -6.5 vs. Raiders : Denver played possibly the 2 best teams in the NFL the past two weeks in the Falcons and Texans, and although lost both, they made valiant comeback efforts in both games. And they looked strong in week 1 vs. the Steelers. The Raiders also beat Pittsburgh, but lost to 2 teams, Miami and San Diego, that just don’t impress us. I think Eli’s brother gets out to a great start in this one, and the Broncos put this one away early. Broncos in a blowout, 38-17.

Eagles -2 vs. Giants : The Eagles got crushed by Arizona this past week, and even in their 2 wins vs. the Browns and Ravens, they played sloppy, and Vick made too many turnovers. And the Giants have looked good in the last 5 quarters, dating back to their huge comeback win in week 2 vs. the Bucs. But the Eagles have too much talent to keep playing this sloppy. The Eagles and Giants have played some classic games in the past few years, and this one should be no different. But I think the Eagles will pound away McCoy early, which will open up Vick for a huge 2nd half. Eagles pull this one out in the 4th quarter, 31-24.

Note : We have selected 5 NFL games, and are going with the home team in all 5 of these. As mentioned in previous post, the Replacement Refs as has been much discussed, have had a huge impact on games so far. And from our breakdown, more of the calls than normal seem to be going in favor of the home teams. We like the 5 NFL sides we are on even with the normal refs, but with the replacement refs, even an additional reason to like them.

Replacement Refs Effect on Spreads

While there were a ton of exciting games this past week, all people will talk about are the controversial calls and endings, capped by probably the most incredible outrageous ending to a game ever on Monday Night Football.  It would have been an exciting night to be at the Caesar’s Sportsbook in Vegas.  With Green Bay -3, they were winning by 5 as they appeared to lock up the game with an interception to end the game.  But in a call that will be talked about forever, the call on the field was TD, and it was upheld after review. 

The recent controveries, between tonight, last night’s ending in Baltimore, and the other debacles over the first 3 weeks appear to at least have another week in store.  As even if a resolution was made in the next 24 – 48 hours, its doubtful this would be soon enough to keep the replacement refs from working Week 4.

So the question BITS is studying, is what affect this has on spreads, and covering.  What I am tending to see is that in general one big effect home teams have is that they often get more calls than a road team.  And it seems with the replacement refs, this has been even more of a factor in the first 3 weeks. 

So while BITS is coming off its 3rd winning week in the first 4, including going 5-2 this past week for +10.3 units, it will giving Home teams in the NFL an even closer look as Replacement Refs continue to affect the outcome of games.  For those who had the Seahawks +3 tonight, congratulations!!!