College Week 1 Locks

BITS gave you some Regular Season Wins to start off your betting.  Now its time to get to Week 1, as BITS looks for a 2nd consecutive winning season.

One thing we will stress here is to make sure you use a book that allows to buy points.  If your book does not allow you to buy at least a point, if not 2 or 3, then find a new one.  There are plenty of books out there, and the value in buying pts can’t be stressed enough.  Its definitely worth an extra 20% juice sometimes to get key lines moved a few pts.  Think of it this way.  Lets say you bet $100 a game on 10 games and go 5-5.  Without buying pts you would lose $50 on the juice here total.  Now if you buy pts on 5 games, and still go 5-5, you lose $150 instead of $50, by having to lay -130 instead of -110.  But if you can turn just 1 loss into a win.  Suddenly you would would end up with a winning session.  And you don’t buy pts every game, but of the games you buy pts, depending on how many you buy, if you can turn a loss into a win around 1 out of every 7 or 8 games, it ends up being worth it.  That being said, here are this week’s locks.

5 Star Locks :

Oklahoma State -12.5 vs. Mississippit State :  Spread currently around 13, but buy it down to 12.5 to be safe.  Oklahoma State should run away with this one.  Depending on what publication you read in the preseason, the Cowboys are one of the teams to beat in the Big 12.  And Mississippi State is a team headed in the wrong direction.  I few years ago it looked like the Bulldogs were trying to turn the corner and move into the upper half of the SEC.  But last year ended up being a disaster, they lost every key game, and ended the year getting blown out in the Egg Bowl and then losing to Northwestern in the Bowl Game.  Oklahoma State wins this one easily, 38-16.

BYU pick vs Virginia :  Expectations are high in Provo this year.  BYU should be a decent 8-4 squad.  Virginia will be lucky to finish 6-6.  The Wahoos are outmatched here.  BYU wins by 10.

4 Star Locks :

UGA Money Line vs. Clemson :  Line is around 1-2.  Money Line around 130-140.  This is a huge matchup in week 1, probably the best matchup of the weekend.  This simply comes down to going with the SEC vs the ACC.  Clemson is loaded with talent, but I think Georgia is just a little deeper.  UGA wins a tight one, 34-31.

3 Star Locks :

Louisville/Ohio over 58 : Louisville and Bridgewater have a high powered offense.  I see Louisville scoring over 40 here, and Ohio should be good enough to get this game in the 60s.  Get on this one now, as I see this total moving towards 61 or so by kickoff.

LSU/TCU under 51 :  These defenses are too good to get involved in a shootout.  This game stays in the 20s.  27-21 final.

Western Kentucky +7 vs Kentucky :  This is a good spot to buy a few points.  Current line is at 5-5.5.  This is our upset special of the week.  Petrino in his coaching debut.  Game at neutral site.  Hilltoppers make a statement upsetting SEC team in Petrino’s debut.

 

 

College Football 2013 : Regular Season Wins

The time has finally come….the beginning of another football season.  The college season kicks off Thursday night, and BITS is back for a 2nd year.  We had a winning year in our Inaugural year.  Wasn’t quite as lucrative as we had hoped, but we still finished at 53% in positive after factoring in juice and all.  So any winning session was a good one to start the year.  We hope to build on that and improve in year 2.  Later today we will be posting our initial College Football Locks for Week 1, and next week will release our NFL Season Bets and Week 1 locks. 

 First we want to release some special Regular Season Wins (RSWs) for College Football.  One good rule to follow in making prop bets for the season is to try and have multiple books if possible.  I keep 3 books, and there has been quite a discrepancy in the juice on some of the RSWs.  I took advantage where I could of favorable lines between the books.  That being said, here are our 5 favorite RSW bets on the year.

 Miami over 8.5 :  Miami is a team flying under the radar this year, and BITS expects the Hurricanes to exceed expectations.  We look over the schedule and see 6 locks as far as wins go.  The Canes just need to go 3-3 in the other games to cash this bet.  We will know a lot about where the Canes stand after week 2 when the Gators come to town.  If the Canes win that one, they should coast to a 4-0 start, and could approach 10 wins.  Road game at FSU is the one definite loss we see on schedule, but between GA Tech, VA Tech, Pitt and Duke, can’t see the Canes not winning a majority of those.  Bet this one with confidence.

Michigan over 8.5 :  While Michigan gets a little more respect than Miami, we compare this bet a lot with our over 8.5 on Miami.  The Wolverines have 5-6 games we consider locks.  Leaving about 6 games they need to 3-3 in.  Similar to Miami who has Florida come to town in week 2, Michigan has Notre Dame come to the big house in week 2.  A win here and Michigan should coast to cashing this bet.  After Notre Dame there is a mid-season trip to Penn State that could be a roadblock, and the season ends with tough games vs Nebraska, Northwestern and Ohio State.  If you consider Ohio State a loss, BITS still sees Michigan getting at least 3 wins out of the other tough matchups.

Ole Miss under 8 :  Some books have already adjusted this to 7.5, but its still at 8 in some places.  BITS was fortunate to get it at 8 with low juice at one book.  Ole Miss finished strong last year, ended up 6-6, and followed it up with a strong recruiting class.  So expectations are on the rise again in Oxford.  That being said, if you get this bet in at 8, there is very little chance of the Rebels getting to 9 wins and losing this bet.  Road games early in the first half are on the schedule at Bama and at Texas.  And there are back to back home games in October vs A&M and LSU.  Right there, I think its optimistic to hope for 1 win in those 4 games.  And lets say they get a win in those 4.  The Rebels would have to run the table elsewhere, including road games vs Vanderbilt, Auburn and Arkansas, as well as MS State and Mizzou at home.  7-5 likely finish, 8-4 possible, but 9-3 is too much of a stretch.  Lock in Rebels under 8 on the season.

 Penn State under 8 :  The Nittany Lions still feeling the effects of Sandusky and the penalties related to that investigation.  While Penn State has bounced back and should be competitive, getting to 9 wins to lose this bet is just not feasible.  Road games at Ohio State and Wisconsin will be losses.  And with games vs Michigan, Nebraska, Minnesota, Purdue and the rest of the Big 10, just feel under 8 is safe.  7-5 likely record, 8-4 possible, but as with the Ole Miss bet, 9-3 just too much of a stretch.

Texas over 9.5 :  We look for the Longhorns to bounce back this year and return to the elite of college football.  10-2 or better is our prediction, and part of this is due to the Big 12 not being as strong as in recent years.  Yes Baylor is still good, Oklahoma State is still good, and Oklahoma is still good.  But none of those 3 are as strong as they have been over the past 3 years.  And Kansas State and West Virginia will drop off some as well.  Longhorns should go 4-0 out of conference, and just don’t see them losing 3 games in conference.