NFL Week 4 & College Week 5 Locks

As did a lot of America, we were shocked at the Browns upset of the Vikings here at BITS.  We felt confident about that 5 star lock, and we know a lot of Survivor Pools were affected by that.  Both the Falcons and Vikings led late, and lost to last drive TDs.  Still no excuse.  So we stopped our 2 game losing streak.  We did hit both 4 star plays, but still lost 4.1 Units on the week, to cut back our year gain to just +4.2 units.  Here are this week’s locks to get back on winning track.

5 Star Locks

Eagles +11.5 @ Broncos :  While the Broncos are playing good ball, their defense has shown some weaknesses.  And we think the fast paced Eagles will be able to score.  Broncos will put up points, but Eagles keep it close.  31-27 Broncos.

4 Star Lock

ML Parlay :  Georgia + Ohio State :  LSU did not impress us vs Auburn last week, and we think UGA is the better team here.  At home, they defeat LSU.  And Ohio State will not lose at home to Wisconsin.  Play it safe and parlay the ML on both of these.  Parlay should pay about 1.4 to 1 based on current odds.

3 Star Locks

Ole Miss +15.5 @ Bama :  Line is way too high here.  Yes Bama is 2 time defending champ, but this year they have not dominated any opponent.  Their offense only put up 13 pts vs Va Tech, they gave up 42 to Johnny Football, and they let a terrible Colorado State team hang around.  We actually think Ole Miss wins the game outright, but we will take the points.  Line opened at 17, has settled in around 15.  Always like to buy an extra half pt or two to be safe, but likely not needed.  Ole Miss shocks the world….Rebels 38 Bama 23.

Bills +3.5 vs Ravens :  Bills are an underrated team so far this year.  And the Ravens are nowhere close to the same team that won the SB.  No reason Buffalo should be a dog at home.  Take the points here.  Bills win 23-20.

Giants +5 vs Chiefs :  Can the Giants be this bad?  Are the Chiefs this good?  We know, we know, taking the Giants here goes against our philosophy of Believing in Streaks.  But the Giants get it back together here this week.  If they start 0-4, their season is basically done.  Giants win 31-24.

Locks for NFL Week 3 & College Week 4

We followed up our huge 10.6 Unit week with another big week.  Hitting our 5 star, and going 4-2 overall.  Our 2 losses were both under TD favorites, both won, but just missed covering.  Still a +6.2 unit week, making it +16.8 units over the past 2 weeks, and now +8.3 units on the year.  We are also 3-1 on our 5 star locks so far this year.  Here are this weeks locks.

5 Star Locks

Vikings -4 vs Browns :  We already loved this game when it opened at -3.5.  Then Browns decided to go with untested Hoyer at QB, and just traded their starting RB.  Line is up to 5.5 now and moving fast.  We actually pounced on this line at the open, but go on and buy it to 4 now before it hits a TD.  Vikings are due for a huge game, and the Browns will allow it.  Vikings win in a blowout.

 

4 Star Locks

Panthers pick vs Giants :  This line opened at -3, and has actually moved to a pick.  We are not sure why.  We actually liked the Panthers at -3, but love then as a pick.  The Giants have struggled so far…granted they played Dallas and Denver, but they haven’t shown much.  Eli has been erratic, and the defense hasn’t stopped much.  Look for Cam to have a breakout game for this season, and the Panthers roll here by a 31-17 score.

 

Stanford -7 vs Arizona State :  This is another game we feel will move to 9 or 10 by kickoff.  Stanford is one of the best teams in the country, and Arizona State is just at a much lower level.  They will not be able to stop the high powered Cardinal offense.  Sun Devils lose this in a blowout.  Buy it to 7, but probably not necessary.  Stanford wins this one 45-17.

 

3 Star Locks :

Falcons +3 @ Dolphins :  Line opened as a pick, and the public actually heavy on Dolphins moving line to 2.  We will go ahead and buy this to 3.  Falcons are much more talented.  They barely lost the opener in the SuperDome, and were in control all game vs the Rams.  They should win this game, and buying the spread to 3 will protect from losing the bet.  Falcons win 27-24.

 

Eagles over 51 :  As with last week, the opponent here doesn’t really matter.  Eagles over is 2-0 on the season and we will continue listing it as a lock until it loses.  For the record, Chiefs are the opponent.  They haven’t given up much in terms of points this year, but Eagles will keep this one high scoring.